There aren’t many comps for a performance like this. The only prior blockbuster to open in February was “Deadpool,” which grossed nearly 90 percent of its final gross by its fifth weekend. “The Avengers” and “Wonder Woman” made 16 percent of their total take after weekend five with summer playtime to increase weekday totals (but also faced elevated competition).
Extrapolate those three titles against to “Black Panther” and its final domestic gross could be from $670 million-$720 million; my guess is the upper range of $690 million-$710 million.
Why better than “Deadpool”? Four reasons stand out.
Reduced competition. The upcoming release calendar doesn’t look particularly strong,